Will First day of April outperform?

The last day of March ended on somewhat of a sour note for the US stock market, but the first quarter has been quite positive overall. Small cap value and small cap growth led the way with gains of 11.5% and 9.8% respectively. The S&P 500 was up 5.6%.

The first day of the second quarter has been very favorable lately. I compiled data for the S&P 500 returns.over the last ten years. There were seven up days and three down days. The average daily return for the last 10 years is 0.60%.

In 2008, the S&P was up 3.59%, and it was up 1.66% last year. It will be interesting to see if the streak continues tomorrow. The e-mini is up 1.00 so far (10:30 PM EST) but it is too early to tell.

  S&P 500 Index Closing prices  
  Last day of March First day of April  
2009 797.87 811.08 1.66%
2008 1322.70 1370.18 3.59%
2007 1420.86 1424.55 0.26%
2006 1294.87 1297.81 0.23%
2005 1180.59 1172.92 -0.65%
2004 1126.21 1132.17 0.53%
2003 848.18 858.48 1.21%
2002 1147.39 1146.54 -0.07%
2001 1160.33 1145.87 -1.25%
2000 1498.58 1505.97 0.49%
    average 0.60%
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