I took a look at S&P 500 returns since 1950 when the following conditions are in place:
1) The second year of presidential term.
2) Democrats are in control of the Presidency and both houses of Congress.
|Year||Annual Total Return||President|
The average return is negative. The positive 1978 nominal return of 6.56% expressed as a real return was negative if you take inflation into account.
If history repeats, 2010 will be a relatively flat year with a slightly negative bias.